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Table 4 Cost (AUD), QALY and net monetary benefit per patient by model and time-horizon for the Markov and DES models

From: Time-to-event analysis in economic evaluations: a comparison of modelling methods to assess the cost-effectiveness of transplanting a marginal quality kidney

  Base case analysis Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
Cost# Effect Δ Cost# Δ Effect ICER Net monetary benefit (NMB) Δ Net monetary benefit
Mean NMB# % change from the DES value Δ NMB# % change from the DES value
Time horizon – 5 years
 Markov model (cycle length 1 year) Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney 147,000 3.17 196,000 0.35 Dominant −49,000 142% 209,000 −33%
Waitlisted for a kidney 343,000 2.82 − 258,000 0.3%
 Markov model (cycle length 0.5 year) Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney 142,000 3.20 187,000 0.50 Dominant −96,000 22% 191,000 −26%
Waitlisted for a kidney 328,000 2.70 − 287,000 −10%
 Discrete Event Simulation model Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney 206,000 3.20 130,000 0.45 Dominant −118,000   141,000  
Waitlisted for a kidney 336,000 2.75 − 259,000  
Time horizon – 20 years
 Markov model (cycle length 1 year) Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney 267,000 6.89 371,000 1.64 Dominant −53,000 128% 416,000 −17%
Waitlisted for a kidney 639,000 5.25 − 469,000 −0.7%
 Markov model (cycle length 0.5 year) Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney 248,000 7.17 299,000 2.68 Dominant − 146,769 −17% 329,000 5%
Waitlisted for a kidney 547,000 4.49 − 476,000 −2%
 Discrete Event Simulation model Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney 322,000 7.09 285,000 2.09 Dominant − 121,000   345,000  
Waitlisted for a kidney 607,000 5.00 − 466,000  
  1. # Rounded up to the nearest AUD 1000
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Health Economics Review

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